Is Property Value Continuing to Rise?

Source: California Association of Realtor

July 2014

Talking Points …

• REALTORS® generally expect home prices to increase in all states over the next 12 months, with most of the heavy growth in Florida, Texas, and California, according to the REALTORS® Confidence Index from the National Association of REALTORS®.

• The median expected price increase is 4 percent. Approximately 41 percent of respondents reported that properties were on the market for less than a month when sold, and about 5 percent were on the market for more than six months.

• REALTORS® reported continued weakness in seller traffic and a decline in buyer traffic. Low supply relative to demand, tougher lending standards, and the lackluster growth in income and savings were reported to be constraining sales.

Five Takeaways: Where is the U.S. Housing Market Headed?

Source: Wall St. Journal
June 2014

Signs point to a housing market that may slowly be gaining some balance and entering more normal territory as a variety of recent housing reports paint an improving picture.

Making sense of the story

• While there was buzz about a potential bubble, Home prices aren’t going up as fast as they were a year ago.

• Furthermore, according to the Commerce Department, sales of new homes, which have struggled to increase from relatively low levels of a year ago, posted huge gains in May.

• A key takeaway is that in May, sales of new homes were at their highest levels in six years with a figure of 504,000 sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.

• Also, new home sales are now running 1 percent ahead of last year’s January-through-May level, as the spring-selling season made up for difficult winter conditions in much of the country.

• However, sales have also been deterred by the fact that builders have been slow to ramp up production. While inventories are still very low, they are up 16 percent from last year.

• Overall, home prices aren’t rising as briskly as they were last year. And as for the large yearly increases over the past year, they have reflected continued declines in the share of homes selling out of foreclosure.

• As more supply comes to market, prices are likely to cool down further. It will be a positive sign for the recovery if builders are able to sell more homes and if more traditional owner-occupant buyers dominate the market rather than investors.

Talking Points …

• Higher home values continued to fuel more equity home sales, which have made up more than 80 percent of all home sales for the past 11 consecutive months.  Meanwhile, pending home sales fell in May as investors pulled out of the market due to higher home prices, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.).

• The share of equity sales – or non-distressed property sales – rose further in May, rising to 89.2 percent, up from 88.4 percent in April.  Equity sales have been rising steadily again since the beginning of this year.  May marks the 11th straight month that equity sales have been more than 80 percent of total sales.

• Twenty-seven of the 41 reported counties showed a month-to-month decrease in the share of distressed sales, with 11 of the counties recording in the single-digits, including Alameda, Marin, San Diego, San Luis Obispo, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties — all of which registered a share of five percent or less.